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MOBILE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS : ANALYST COMMENTS |
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JULY 2007 |
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“Wi-Fi Real Time Location Systems,” ABI
- Wi-Fi-based Real Time Location Systems will become an $800 million dollar market by 2012. This study examines the key vertical market segments spurring growth, as well as some of the drivers for horizontal growth such as fixed-mobile convergence. The report also examines the key competitive advantages as well as disadvantages of Wi-Fi RTLS products.
- In order to understand the dynamics of this market, it is necessary to examine the growth of a number of individual product components such as tags, appliances, software, and professional services, and to forecast the revenue growth from each key product category.
“Mobile Phone Accessories,” ABI Reserch
- The opportunity to earn high margins from sales of handset accessory products is becoming an increasingly attractive proposition, not only for OEMs, ODMs, distributors and retailers, but for handset vendors and mobile operators as well. Handset vendors are realizing that accessories can contribute to increasing sales of their high-end devices, and mobile operators are finding that accessories can lead to higher ARPUs as they provide better comfort, convenience, and user experiences of mobile services.
- Handset accessories provide handset vendors and mobile operators further opportunities in brand building and promotion, as well as in expanding their product offerings. This study focuses on handset accessories and the market for these products, including in-depth analysis for both in-box as well as aftermarket handset accessories.
“LG and Samsung Phones Lead in Advanced Mobile Entertainment Features,” Park Associates
- LG and Samsung are the top mobile-phone brands in the U.S. for advanced entertainment features, leading competitors Motorola and Nokia in adoption of phones with support for mobile TV, music, and games, according to Mobile Entertainment Platforms and Services, a new consumer study from Parks Associates.
- Among owners of LG and Samsung phones, 12% and 11% reported having mobile TV features, respectively, compared with 8% of Motorola owners and 0% for Nokia owners.

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JUNE 2007 |
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“Apple iPhone May Struggle Initially to Cross the Chasm,” Park Associates
- The Apple iPhone may find strong demand among early-adopter technophiles, but building a larger market may be difficult
initially, according to The iPhone: A Consumer Perspective. This new white paper from Parks Associates includes
primary consumer data from Mobile Entertainment Platforms & ServiceS, a 2007 survey of 2,000 U.S. Internet users. The survey finds only 3% of these consumers have a strong interest in purchasing the iPhone at its $499.99 price point and
two-year contract.
“The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications 2007 – 2012,” Insight Research
- Employers are now actively promoting the expansion of their mobile workforce and technology is enabling continuous communication with employees outside of the office. Of note are a number of statistics sited in a study by the Telework Coalition:
- 89 of the top 100 US companies offer telecommuting;
- 58 percent of companies consider themselves a virtual workplace;
- only nine percent of employees worked at headquarters; and
- 67 percent of all workers used mobile and wireless computing.
“US Hispanic Use of Telecom Service 2002-2007,” Insight Research
- In 2006, nearly one out of every three dollars spent on residential telecommunications services came from US ethnic communities. Harnessing the spending power of the Hispanic-American, African-American, and Asian-American communities has become crucial to the survival of telecommunications providers. This market report takes a close look at the purchasing habits and telecom usage patterns of the burgeoning Hispanic segment of the US population.
- US Hispanic purchasing power is now growing at nearly twice the rate of the general population, fueled by continued population growth and increasing employment and income levels. In this report, Insight examines spending by US Hispanics on local, long-distance, wireless, and pre-paid services, and compares these spending patterns to the general population and to other minority segments, including Asian Americans and African Americans.
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MAY 2007 |
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“Worldwide Mobile Phone 2007 – 2011 Forecast and Analysis,” IDC
- This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for worldwide mobile phone shipments by device vendor for 2007–2011. Having surpassed a record one billion handsets shipped in 2006, IDC expects the worldwide phone market to continue to grow at a 2006–2011 CAGR of 6.9% to break 1.4 billion units shipped.
- "The growth in mobile phone shipments will be powered by new users in emerging markets, allowing the market to reach the next billion users," says Chris Hazelton, senior analyst in IDC's Mobile Device Technology and Trends service. "However, mature markets will also experience growth from users upgrading to mobile phones that offer advances in mobile Internet, navigation, rich messaging, and video.
“Western European Mobile Devices Forecast and Analysis, 2007 – 2011,” IDC
- This IDC study presents IDC's updated 2007–2011 forecast for Western European mobile device shipments including standalone handhelds and converged devices. A review of performance in 2006 is presented, including vendor and country analysis, followed by the IDC forecast, which examines future shipments and revenues for handhelds and converged devices.
- According to Andrew Brown, program manager, European Mobile Devices, "IDC predicts strong growth for converged devices as industrywide moves to embrace the advantages of platformization in tandem with increasing operating system architecture efficiencies and the advent of single chip reference designs, enabling the positioning of lower cost devices in both business and consumer segments."
“Mobile Phone Accessories Market Will Generate More Revenue than the Smartphone Market in 2007,” ABI Research
- The market for mobile phone accessories will generate over $32 billion in revenues in 2007, more than the $28 billion expected from the Smartphone market. Around 77% of these revenues will come from the sales of "after-market" mobile phone accessories and the remaining from "in-box" accessories shipments.
- ABI Research expects the market for mobile phone accessories to grow steadily in the next five years and generate over $80 billion in revenues in 2012. The continuing innovation and further advancements in technology coupled with the increasing desire of customers to personalize their handsets, bodes well for the future of the market.
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APRIL 2007 |
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“Mobile phone sales to slow in 2007” IDC
- Vendors shipped 256.4 million units in the first quarter of 2007, up 10 percent year on year, but shipments were down 13.8 percent from the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth in each quarter of 2006 was over 20 percent.
- First-quarter sales growth in 2007 was driven by new mobile phone customers in emerging markets, as well as replacement sales in mature markets, according to IDC.
- As more new customers join mobile networks, fewer prospective customers remain, resulting in a gradual shift of sales from first-time owners to replacement handsets. Sales will continue to grow but at a lower rate, IDC said.
“Mobile Broadband-Enabled Consumer Electronics Will Approach 100 Million Shipments by 2012,” ABI Research
- No sooner has the market for consumer electronics devices incorporating Wi-Fi begun to gain real traction than another, based on high-speed connections via 3G cellular technologies or mobile WiMAX, is starting to take shape. According to a new study from ABI Research, portable consumer electronics — digital cameras, media players, portable game devices, and more — are beginning to offer direct mobile broadband connections to the Internet. By 2012, annual shipments of such devices are expected to approach 100 million.
- "In the longer-term, WiMAX has more potential than cellular-based connections for these devices," says Solis. "It's an IP-based network with simpler architecture and better connection to the Internet. Sprint, with its commitment to WiMAX, will promote such devices heavily, in the process helping US markets keep up with Korea and Japan."
“Mobile Marketing and Advertising to be Worth $3 Billion by 1Q 2008,” ABI Research
- The world market for mobile marketing and advertising is expected to be worth about $3 billion by the end of 2007, according to a recent study from ABI Research. By 2011, the value of this market will reach $19 billion, including mobile search and video advertising. ABI Research also expects some of the highest levels of spending to come in the broadcast mobile video space. By 2011, it will surpass SMS as a source of mobile marketing spending, due in part to mobile broadcast networks' presence in all major markets. In 2011, ABI Research expects spending for broadcast mobile video advertising alone to reach $9 billion.
- "Mobile advertising and marketing is a risky, albeit enticing business," says principal analyst Judith Rosall. "Unlike the PC, a mobile device offers a uniquely personalized communications channel. Carriers worldwide have quite a bit of information about their end-users: name, sex, age, geographical location. And depending on the handset and plan their users have purchased, the carriers probably also know something about their economic status and credit record. But they don't like to release this information to third parties because they want to protect and control their customers."
“Mobile Broadband Wireless: Path Toward 4G,” Park Associates
- “The road warrior market offers great ARPU potential but is limited in size,” said Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, Director, Broadband & Gaming. “In order to expand beyond this segment, mobile carriers need to provide application-centric rather than access-centric mobile broadband services and offer a variety of flexible business models that fit consumers’ usage patterns.”
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MARCH 2007 |
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| “Quality of Experience Drives Mobile Content,” Billing World
- A 2005 survey commissioned by Olista reported that only 12 percent of customers profess to be completely satisfied with the mobile online experience, while 64 percent confessed that they would give up trying after one or two unsuccessful attempts. Wireless carriers are betting their business that users will adopt and pay for content services. They recognize that they must improve their customers’ experience to succeed.
- According to a 2006 CTIA report, data and content services in the United States grow by 70 percent each year. They now account for more than 13 percent of revenue and a greater percentage of profits for major wireless providers. Note, however, that data and content services account for more than 20 percent of the average European carrier’s revenue, and more than 30 percent of the average Asian carrier’s revenue. Assuming the U.S. mobile market will follow the European and Asian markets, as it typically does, $1 billion in revenue is at risk for U.S. mobile operators if they don’t get the content customer experience right.
“Global Mobile Communications: Statistics, Trends, and Forecasts,” ReportLinker
- Competition will continue to increase in the telecommunications sector because users of all forms of technologies continue to grow, especially in personal communications. This applies to the mobile industry, where mobile subscribers have more than doubled in the last five years or so. As more participants enter the mobile market, and the convergence of fixed and mobile continues, this competitive pressure will escalate.
- Call charges on average are dropping by around 15% to 20% per annum around the world. As would be expected, it is the markets with strong competition that have seen the most considerable drops in mobile call charges.
- For the time being, the mobile industry will continue to revolve around voice services. The industry can still capture more of the voice market from the fixed networks, as the mobile phone is by far the preferred telephone choice for most consumers, and many countries now have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers.
“Parks Associates launches New Study to gauge Consumer Interest in Mobile Convergence,” Parks Associates
- Dallas, TX March 15 - U.S. consumers have embraced convergence in mobile devices, according to Parks Associates, which reports 41% of U.S. households own a camera phone and 21% own an MP3 music phone. The market research firm is launching a new multiclient consumer survey "Mobile Entertainment: Platforms and Services" (Second Edition) to examine this growing consumer interest in mobile service and platform convergence and identify future trends in usage and purchase patterns.

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"The key challenge is to understand consumer perspectives in a fashion that will help handset manufacturers, portable device makers, entertainment companies, and service providers in formulating their strategies," said Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, director of broadband and gaming at Parks Associates. "The second edition of our Mobile Entertainment series examines emerging trends in the adoption and use of mobile and portable devices and services and consumer perspectives regarding mobile convergence."
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Parks Associates cites multiple industry events as part of this convergence trend in mobile devices. For one, Apple's iPhone announcement has generated lots of buzz in the market. In addition, major carriers are looking to integrate mobile platforms into their bundled offerings and provide fixed-mobile convergence applications. For example, Sprint is testing a new business model with WiMAX-based services that will provide a bundle of services and applications on multiple platforms and enable consumers to connect a variety of devices to the company's network. Cellular phone manufacturers such as Nokia and Motorola are also venturing into new business domains, making non-traditional devices like Internet tablets and launching their own entertainment services.
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"The continuous evolution of mobile phones toward a convergence platform poses many important questions," Cai said. "Do consumers want a multifunctional cell phone? Does the success of camera phones indicate interest in other hybrid phones? At what point will convergence impact adoption of stand-alone portable devices? These are all questions we will address in this project."
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"Mobile Entertainment: Platforms and Services" (Second Edition) will survey over 2,000 Internet users, ages 13 and above, who own one or more mobile or portable devices. For more information on this project, contact Parks Associates at sales@parksassociates.com, call 972-490-1113, or visit http://www.parksassociates.com.
“Fixed Mobile Convergence: Single Phone Solutions for Wireless, Wireline, and VoIUP Convergence 2005-2010,” Insight Research
- In this study, Insight examines the potential impact that the single phone with fixed and mobile capability will have on the stakeholders: local wireline carriers, long distance providers, broadband ISPs, wireless carriers, and handset vendors.
- According to the analysis of most recent government data, the demographic information regarding those who have wireless-only service indicates that young, single people living in urban areas are those most likely to have cut the cord.
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FEBRUARY 2007 |
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“IDC Report Finds Mobile Marketing Brand Spending Doubled in 2006,” IDC
- The report, which IDC will discuss at its Directions 2007 conference in San Jose, Calif., on March 6, and in Boston on March 14, finds that mobile marketing represents one of the most promising opportunities for marketers.
- According to the report, mobile marketing messages must capture the attention of and engage users. An IDC survey found that mobile users show limited tolerance for pre-roll mobile messages that last for more than eight to 10 seconds.
“Cellular Modem Shipments to Exceed 68 Million Units in 2010,” ABI Research
- Although cellular modem shipments in 2006 were slightly below expectations, the momentum is building for this market to reach nearly $10 billion by 2012, a 47 percent compound annual growth rate, according to a study by ABI Research.
- ABI Research principal analyst Dan Shey says, "The fundamental drivers for sales of modems are the proliferation of 3G networks and better cellular broadband pricing. Operators made significant efforts in 2006 to upgrade their networks to 3G technologies, particularly in North America and Europe. Operators are also tempting customers with various cellular broadband pricing options, although the total monthly costs are still too high to encourage significant modem adoption by consumers."
“Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Phone Sales Grew 21 Percent in 2006,” Gartner
- One billion mobile phones sold but not to end users
- Vendors outside the top six continued to lose market share
- BenQ dropped out of the top six vendors into ninth place
- In the fourth quarter of 2006, mobile phone sales growth slowed slightly compared to previous year-end rates. Sales accounted for 284.2 million units and grew 21 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005.
- The fourth quarter was characterized by a continuation of the trends seen earlier in the year as users in mature markets like Western Europe and North America were won over by slimmer phones and handsets with many features. In emerging markets, more first-time users joined mobile networks.
“Worldwide server shipments experienced 9 percent growth in 2006,” Gartner
- Worldwide server shipments in 2006 totaled 8.2 million units in 2006, an 8.9 percent increase from 2005, while worldwide server revenue in 2006 reached $52.7 billion up 2.0 percent from 2005, according to Gartner.
- Based on server shipments, Hewlett-Packard remained the worldwide leader for 2006. Rackable Systems had the highest growth in shipments of the top ten vendors. Sun was the only top-five vendor to gain revenue share during 2006.
- Of the top five global vendors, only Sun gained revenue share for the year. By pushing its share ahead 1.2 percent to reach 10.8 percent, Sun reversed a yearly revenue share decline trend that had been occurring since 2001.
- Of the top 10 vendors in server shipments worldwide, Rackable Systems had the highest growth with a 68 percent increase for the year. The only other vendor in the top 10 to increase its shipment share was NEC (0.2 percent).
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JANUARY 2007 |
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| “Verizon is Now the New U.S. Market Leader on Mobile Data Spending Per Customer Basis Among the National Carrier,” IDC
- There are more than 229 million U.S. wireless subscribers who are spending an average of $6.00 per month on data services according to the latest IDC research. Customer spending on data services contributed a total of $4.1 billion in revenue for 3Q06.
- IDC says messaging contributed nearly half the data revenue, while business- and consumer-oriented services and content constituted about 40%, and content and simple application downloads came to about 12%. Of the top ten wireless carriers, IDC research indicates that Verizon prevails as the new leader on data spending-per-customer basis.
- "Our research found that at $7.27 spent per-customer on data services in 3Q06, Verizon Wireless became the new market leader among the national operators, eclipsing Sprint Nextel, the long-time leader in this metric at $7.15," says Julien Blin, research analyst for IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program.
- "Among the national carriers, Verizon Wireless is today the overall leader in data services in terms of total wireless data revenue, data percentage of ARPU, and data spending, although Sprint Nextel and the other national carriers continue to lead in select services."
“2.4GHz Products Ready to Win Share in Wireless Mouse and Keyboard Markets,” ABI Research
- ABI Research forecasts a significant change next year in the wireless HID (human interface device) market, which includes wireless mice, keyboards, and remote controls.
- Historically, this market has been dominated by products operating in the 27MHz band. Beginning in 2008, ABI Research expects shipments of 2.4GHz-based products to outstrip those running at 27MHz, thanks to wholesale product changes by major OEMs.
- ABI Research expects that by 2011, 2.4GHz products will account for triple the number of 27MHz products shipped.
- A new ABI Research report forecasts the total market for wireless HID to grow from just over 100 million units in 2005 to over 168 million units in 2012, at a CAGR of 8%. A respectable share of that growth may be claimed by companies such as Nordic Semiconductor and TI, which stand to profit from the shift to 2.4GHz products.
“Manages Mobile Network Services to See Double-Digit Growth, Says ABI Research,” American Digital Networks
- Managed network services provide a large and growing opportunity for mobile communications service providers in order to offload network operation tasks to third parties. Additionally, these services allow infrastructure vendors to secure new revenue streams, according to a new study from ABI Research that forecasts double-digit compound annual growth rates over the next five years.
- "Service providers will be under pressure from several directions in 2007," says research director Lance Wilson. "They must focus as never before on maximizing profits and reducing costs, rather than just recruiting as many new subscribers as possible.”
“Mobile Game Buyers to Touch 50 Million Customers by 2010 Says IDC ,” IT News
- According to IDC, mobile game purchasers will grow more than 16% annually reaching nearly 50 million customers by 2010, which will substantially increase total mobile gaming revenue by the end of the decade.
- The research group said that mobile gaming for wireless devices is providing new revenue opportunities for game developers, network operators, service providers, handset manufacturers and other players in the value chain.
- A recent IDC survey shows that 11% of respondents purchased at least one game for their wireless device in the third quarter of 2006. Teens and adults under 24 years of age made up the core of this gaming constituency.
- For the third quarter of 2006, IDC survey respondents reported spending an average of $13.00 on wireless games, with reported spending inversely correlated with the purchaser's age. IDC predicts that the price per mobile game will rise more than $2.50 by 2010 due in part to the impact of growing subscription revenues.
“IDC Study Identifies 10 Emerging Mobile Players to Watch in 2007,” IDC
- This annual IDC study highlights 10 small mobile companies that IDC analysts collectively believe have the potential to have a market impact disproportionate to their current size. The companies that IDC has chosen to highlight as emerging players to watch for 2007 are (in alphabetical order) Dexterra, Firethorn, GoGoMo, GrandCentral Communications, InnoPath, iSkoot, JumpTap, mFormation Technologies, Sonic Branding Solutions, and TeleNav.
- The companies IDC has chosen to highlight for 2007 echo four broad strategies or attributes: companies looking to create new markets and industry sectors through new capabilities or combinations of capabilities that already exist; companies developing new ways to address existing or near-future customer and industry needs; companies that see market challenges in terms of business opportunities and are clearly articulating how to address these challenges; and, even though they are currently small, companies that have the potential to both grow and play larger roles in the broader mobile industry over time.
- "Collectively, the outlook for these emerging wireless players is bright when set against the backdrop of the rapidly evolving wireless ecosystem and marketplace, evolving market strategies of larger wireless players, increasing reliance upon mobile by enterprises, and the overall trend of wireless becoming ever more central to ever more subscribers as the "third screen" in their lives," says Scott Ellison, vice president, Wireless and Mobile Communications at IDC.
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Today, mobile communication is moving "from the business of ears to the business of eyes." "The Mobile Revolution" is the first comprehensive account of the explosion of mobile services (rich
voice, internet, messaging, content). The book tells the story of these services in the pioneering markets
of Europe, the United States and Asia-Pacific.
>>More About the Book
>>Dan Steinbock Bio
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