“Wireless Portals and Wireless Service Providers 2001-2006,” Insight Research

• The business models for wireless Internet portals are still emerging, but if history shows us anything, it is that the creation of wireless data businesses can be extremely difficult. Careful attention must be paid to developing revenue-generating applications that make sense. The trend toward low-cost, flat-rated, volume airtime plans should spur the development of this market as increasing numbers of end users look to wireless as a convenient substitute for wireline services.

• The market for wireless internet services will grow, but only as rapidly as advanced technologies are deployed and more enticing applications—audio streaming, video streaming, stock trading, and games—can evolve. 

• For now, the best opportunities in the wireless data space will remain in the business data-only wireless services sector.  This report sizes the business and consumer market, discusses the wireless portal value chain, examines supporting technologies, and profiles wireless service providers, wireless portals, and device manufacturers.

“The Unwired Consumer: Consumer Telephony in a Wireless World,” Insight Research

• The business models for wireless Internet portals are still emerging, but if history shows us anything, it is that the creation of wireless data businesses can be extremely difficult. Careful attention must be paid to developing revenue-generating applications that make sense. The trend toward low-cost, flat-rated, volume airtime plans should spur the development of this market as increasing numbers of end users look to wireless as a convenient substitute for wireline services.

• The market for wireless internet services will grow, but only as rapidly as advanced technologies are deployed and more enticing applications—audio streaming, video streaming, stock trading, and games—can evolve. 

• For now, the best opportunities in the wireless data space will remain in the business data-only wireless services sector.  This report sizes the business and consumer market, discusses the wireless portal value chain, examines supporting technologies, and profiles wireless service providers, wireless portals, and device manufacturers.

“Future of Telecommunications 2006-2011,” Insight Research

• Continuing turmoil throughout the worldwide telecommunications industry warrants a systematic look forward at the possible repercussions of the forces that are now pushing the industry forward: the end user’s demand for more bandwidth; increased reliance on mobility services; and the end users’ assessment of cost versus performance.

• In this study, INSIGHT will develop several scenarios to model the future shape of telecommunications. Thus far, the industry has reacted to the forces driving major structural change through consolidation, as carriers merge and equipment suppliers struggle to survive. Both on the domestic level and internationally, regulators and government agencies are struggling to cope with rapid, profound structural change in an industry that had been predictable for more than 100 years.

• The technologies spurring the industry’s transformation can be clearly delineated: IP transport’s ability to merge voice, video and data; the long-haul fiber glut and the resulting price wars dropping the cost of bandwidth; the variety of local broadband wired and wireless solutions; increasing security requirements; and the corresponding decrease in the ability to protect users on the Internet.

• In this study, INSIGHT will present possible future scenarios for how these forces and technologies will reshape the worldwide telecommunications industry and the impact each scenario will have on the industry’s existing revenue models.

“The Unwired Consumer: Consumer Telephony in a Wireless World,” Insight Research

• Just how quickly will Americans make a wireless phone their only phone? The media publishes stories about it at least once a month, but are we looking at a phenomena confined to a college-age cohort group or at something that is spreading more evenly throughout society?

• Insight’s research found that, depending on the type of household, as many as six out of ten people would consider using their wireless phone as their primary phone if the costs were equal. And with wireless per minute prices falling and penetration rates growing, 2000 is shaping up to become a watershed year for the cellular industry.

• Currently only six percent of all the calls made in the US are made from a wireless phone, but this number is predicted to increase to 9.6 percent by 2000 and to 12.7 percent by the end of 2002. By 2005 worldwide wireless traffic is expected to account for 25 percent of the total traffic, up from five percent in 1998. As wireless continues to decline in price, more and more consumers are using their wireless phones as a replacement for wired or landline phones.

• Actual substitution, where customers disconnect their landline phones, is still years away however. Consumers will keep their regular home telephone as a back-up for voice calls and as a means for broadband access to the Internet. The quality of wireless calls must improve before consumers rely on wireless as their primary service.

“Wireless Enterprise User-Level Market Forecast (Asia-Pac Country Level 2005-2010),” Strategy Analytics

• Strategy Analytics' updated outlook for wireless enterprise expenditures in Asia-Pac has been expanded to include full details for China, India, Japan and South Korea. We estimate that monthly recurring end user spend (OPEX) by enterprises for wireless data solutions across Asia-Pac will eclipse US$ 10 billion annually by 2010.

• The preponderance of these expenditures will be dedicated to the mobilization of productivity tools and applications such as SMS, Image Messaging, Email and Instant Messaging, which will eclipse 95% of the total in 2010. Business use of wireless email in its various flavors will appear as a credible long-term revenue driver surpassing 30% of revenues.

• However strong pressure on upfront and recurring monthly expenditures will force vendors to revisit their standard flat-fee, seat-based business models. India features the most promising opportunities in mobile enterprise growth, gathering critical market drivers such as large demographics, sustainable level of ARPU and a legacy of fixed IT business (email, CRM, ERP). Strategy Analytics believes its revenue share in the region will enjoy healthy growth, rising from 10% in 2005 to 20% in 2010.

“Key Behaviors of the Digital Consumer in the Connected Home,” Strategy Analytics

• With broadband and networked devices already reaching millions of connected digital consumers, opportunities for content owners, service providers and hardware vendors are immense. But, as the market expands, the ability to target critical groups of consumers will separate winners from losers in a digital universe defined by infinite choice and personalization.

• This presentation, given at the recent "Developing Customer Segmentation Strategies for the Digital Consumer" conference in Seoul, Korea, investigates the way in which new devices are shaping how television is accessed and consumed, and how we can better understand the behavior of different groups of connected consumers in predicting further change.

“Lack of New Devices Contribute to Continued Decline of Handheld Market, According to IDC,” IDC

• The worldwide market for handheld devices continued along its downward path during the third quarter of 2006.

• According to IDC's Worldwide Handheld QView, total worldwide shipments of handheld devices fell to 1.1 million units, down 15.4% from the previous quarter and down 31.3% from the same quarter one year ago. This quarter constitutes the eleventh consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline for the worldwide handheld market.

• "Contributing significantly to the decrease in shipments this quarter was a lack of new devices being announced or shipped to the market," said Ramon Llamas, research analyst for IDC's Mobile Markets team. "Vendors continue to rely on models that have been on the market anywhere between two and four quarters. Without many new devices on the market in the third quarter, it brings into question how shipments will total during the fourth quarter when vendors typically expect a boost in shipments as a result of new devices coming to market."

• The absence of new models does not necessarily mean the end of the handheld market, however. "There are users who remain fiercely loyal to their handheld devices, and smaller niche users have emerged," Llamas added. "For example, in some developing markets, the handheld device has been tremendously important in self-education, enabling users to continue learning outside the classroom once they have downloaded content through the PC.

• If usage for specific non-network tasks like self-education increase, we could expect an increase in shipments and possibly new devices that are optimized for particular tasks."

“Commonwealth of Independent States Mobile Communications Services 2006–2010 Forecast,” IDC

• In 2005, mobile subscriptions doubled in this region but, with mobile penetration at 35%, the market is still far from saturation.

• This study contains five-year forecasts for all of the CIS mobile markets, with data on subscription numbers segmented as prepaid or contract. The study analyzes end-user spending on voice, SMS, and other mobile data services. The study covers Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

• "The CIS mobile market offers huge growth potential, although the untapped portion of the market has much less purchasing power than do current subscribers. To ensure continued growth, operators must adapt their offerings, finding products that will satisfy low-spending end users while keeping ARPU at satisfactory levels." – Krešimir Alić, Senior Analyst, IDC CEMA

“Who's Ahead, What's Next in U.S. Wireless Entertainment?,” IDC

• In 2005, the U.S. wireless entertainment value chain was still in a formative phase characterized by scores of mostly smaller companies supplying content, aggregation and marketing technology and services to network operators.

• However, the market is now embracing direct-to-consumer business models and is undergoing dramatic consolidation, which is having a profound effect on wireless data market evolution.

• This telebriefing examines which operators, content/infrastructure companies and market segments appear to be particularly well-positioned for growth in 2007 based on the latest round of consumer survey work and recent research of IDC analysts in the area of mobile entertainment.

“Affluent Consumers Buy Electronics Online,” eMarketer

• The study found that 93% of US affluent consumers research upcoming consumer electronics purchases, it also found that over 62% used both product Web sites and search engines to do so. Another 27.5% used e-mail newsletters as part of their research process.

• While the study found that 93% of US affluent consumers research upcoming consumer electronics purchases, it also found that over 62% used both product Web sites and search engines to do so. Another 27.5% used e-mail newsletters as part of their research process.

• Computing products advertising as a share of total online spending has been dropping since 2003, from 20% of all online advertising that year to 18% in 2004. eMarketer expects the category to account for about 15% of all online advertising in 2005, increasing to 16% in 2007, to reach $2.8 billion.

“ Mobile Messaging Marketing: Cash not Flash,” eMarketer

• The explosive success of accidental consumer applications such as Short Messaging Service (SMS) in contrast to industry-led Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) holds the important lesson that most consumers value mobile data for what it helps them do as opposed to the content they can pull into a handset.

• At the same time, smart marketers are discovering that mobile messaging is one of the best direct response mechanisms available — providing a time stamp and demographics each time a user responds to a marketer's call to action. When tethered to another rich media platform such as TV, or even digital outdoor displays, marketers get richness and reach in the same experience.

“Is Apple’s iPod Dominance Sustainable? The Consumer Responds,” The Diffusion Group

• iPod users are an extremely loyal lot and gaining market share will depend heavily upon convincing new DMP users to switch brands.

• Apple is by far the most used brand of DMP as 63% of DMP households have an iPod – this means that an iPod can be found in 33% of broadband households; Creative and Sony are second to Apple, each existing in 9% of DMP households.

• The decline in proclivities to switch to Apple among non-iPod DMP owners is certainly good news for Apple competitors as it shows that brand loyalty may exist outside of Apple.

• The easy- and enjoyable-to-use interface was the most common reason for choosing an iPod over a different brand. The interface has remained the top reason for choosing the iPod, with 26% citing this reason in both 2005 and 2006.

• While the number one reason people choose an iPod is that the interface is easy and enjoyable to use, and while the aesthetics of the iPod is also a moderately chosen reason, the most important take-away from the "reasons" data shared in this report is that 23% purchased out of brand familiarity. Despite the fact that the iPod is usually revolutionary in their new designs, competitors have shown that they are capable of matching the iPod in style, even if consumers have not seen it yet.

 “ New Zealand Enterprise Mobile and Wireless Usage and Preference 2006,” IDC

• Given the situation of a nearly penetration-saturated cellular service market in New Zealand and the high-value of the enterprise component of this market, paying attention to key insights on the current and anticipated usage preferences and drivers for enterprises are deemed crucial.

• This survey took place pre-May 2006 — before the government announced a massive portfolio of regulation aimed at improving New Zealand's wholesale telecommunications environment — and, as such, the results reflect a relatively static supply environment compared with that anticipated in 2007 and 2008. In the next two years, a rapid pace of change is anticipated on the supply side around mobile competition for local calling services, increased supplier options on the back of MVNO's and number portability, and the impact of non-conventional wireless broadband options such as WiMAX- and Mesh WiFi-centric services.

• "Although the disruption may be challenging for incumbent mobile operators, it will be good for end users and will serve to promote an ongoing reassessment of supply options particularly in the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) market, for whom FMS, Naked DSL, and alternative wireless broadband access options are most relevant," says Christopher Loh, senior analyst, Telecommunications, IDC New Zealand.

“Asia/ Pacific Emerging Asia Telecommunications Capex 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis,” IDC

• IDC study reviews and assesses the current as well as future trends of the telecommunications services and capital expenditure (capex) industry in four emerging Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.

• "The telecommunications services markets in all four countries covered in this study are no doubt facing a growth market sentiment due to various domestic factors, as well as interest from both foreign telecommunications players and foreign investors. Nonetheless, IDC notes that while the growth is positive, the uphill challenges faced by each country are relatively common but very unique to the country's culture and ruling policies," says Huei Min Lee, research manager, Telecommunications Research, IDC.

“Worldwide WLAN Semiconductor 2006-2010 Forecast,” IDC

• IDC forecasts WLAN semiconductor revenue will increase from $1.5 billion in 2005 to $3.2 billion by 2010, a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

• "The WLAN semiconductor forecast continues to look strong because of new end-market opportunities such as consumer and mobile devices as well as future product tiering for both draft-n and 802.11n within the forecast period." — Celeste Crystal, senior research analyst, Semiconductors

“U.S. Wireless Business Location-Based Services 2006-2010 Forecast,” IDC

• IDC study analyzes the U.S. market for wireless location-based services (LBS). It forecasts revenue generated by applications that incorporate GPS and other network-based location-determining technology.

• Numerous developments — from network improvements to the greater availability of GPS-enabled handsets and devices — are contributing to the growth in LBS. While navigational and mapping services promise to capture market dominance among consumers, the business segment is maturing to incorporate location information into a greater number of industry-specific solutions.

• "Driving business LBS adoption are the availability of hosted solutions that require little up-front investment; the broader selection of prepackaged, white-labeled options available; growing attention from wireless carriers; and the cost savings, improved operating efficiencies, and higher levels of customer satisfaction that can be potentially achieved through the use of LBS." — Rena Bhattacharyya, program manager, Wireless Business Network Services

“Digital Home Devices: Global Market Forecast,” Strategy Analytics

• Consumers globally will spend $159bn this year on digital home devices, an annual increase of 32%. Flat panel and digital TVs account for the bulk of this revenue increase, while other growth segments include DVD recorders, DVRs, games consoles, entertainment PCs, MP3 players and IP cellphones.

• Our forecasts indicate a sharp moderation in growth rates after 2007, however, as household penetration levels for many current digital device segments begin to level off. Future growth will hinge on successful identification of new digital device segments for the mass market that have yet to enter a phase of early adopter growth.

• This report quantifies demand, globally and by major region, by unit volume and value, for 14 fixed and portable digital home device segments, and provides 5-year forecasts. It also analyses the adoption of IP-enabled and wireless-enabled devices in each segment, and includes a 5-year demand forecast for Wireless Home Devices and IP-Enabled Devices.

• This report is updated and published on a quarterly basis. CHD service subscribers may access additional detail on feature segments and country-level forecasts by contacting the analyst team. Country-level market estimates forecasts are maintained on an ongoing basis for internal analysis purposes and may be requested at any time by subscribers.

• Our market estimates are derived through interviews with technology vendors and service providers, as well as access to a wide range of market tracking and information sources. Our forecasts are proprietary to Strategy Analytics and are based on detailed assessment of likely future ownership levels using customer survey feedback and input from extensive historical consumer technology adoption data.

“Wireless Enterprise User-Level Market Forecast ( W. Europe Country-Level 2005-2010),” Strategy Analytics

• SA’s revised outlook for recurring expenditures on wireless enterprise applications in W. Europe has been expanded significantly to include full detail for 14 countries. Total revenues for the 5-year horizon are set to reach $12.7B by 2010. Mobilized productivity applications at $11B (up from $7.3B in 2005) will continue to dominate revenues. SMS remains the key component exceeding $6.4 billion by 2010, but dropping from 79% of revenues in 2005 to 50% in 2010.

• While the UK represents over $1.3B in SMS revenues, the Nordic countries are rapidly reaching saturation exceeding a 98% of business cellular users. Business use of wireless email lead by exceptionally strong UK and German markets will become the second largest wireless enterprise opportunity in the region growing from $0.7B in 2005 (9% of revenues) to nearly $2.8B in 2010 (22% of revenues).

• Similarly, the UK and Germany will lead in wireless SFA with respective revenues of $130M and $ 174M (nearly half of the region's SFA revenues). Sweden stands out as the most rapid adopter of wireless IM approaching an unrivaled 35% penetration rate of all IM users in 5 years.

“Australia Business Mobile Vertical 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis: Can You Read My Mind?” IDC

• This IDC study presents IDC's inaugural five-year forecast of the Australia business mobile market with an in-depth examination of business verticals and identifying the subtle differences between each vertical industry and their impact on the greater enterprise mobility landscape in Australia. Analyses transposing mobile spending, business application deployments, and business sentiment concerning their mobility strategies are contrasted against the overall direction that Australia enterprise mobility is heading.

• Business mobile spend on voice, messaging, and mobile data is forecasted from 2006 to 2010 with industry trends and contrasts in vertical adoption investigated to provide a future outlook and essential guidance for mobile service and solutions providers in the Australia enterprise mobility ecosystem.

• "By understanding the unique needs and expectations of organisations will mobile service and solutions providers begin to offer convincing and contemporary solutions that businesses will appreciate," says Jerson Yau, associate analyst, Wireless and Mobility Solutions, IDC Australia. He adds, "As far as a business is concerned with their mobility solution, their needs outweigh the rest the market and they will value anyone who can — first and foremost — understand their business issues and processes."

“IDC Predicts Substantial Market Expansion for U.S. Wireless Cellular TV and Video Content and Services,” IDC

• IDC expects about 24 million U.S. cellular subscribers and customers will be paying for some form of TV/video content and services on their mobile devices by 2010, up from about 7 million this year. This growth presents new revenue opportunities for carriers, handset developers, and content providers. IDC expects mobile commercial video and television content and services to emerge as a key component of U.S. carrier data services if delivered and priced appropriately.

• "Although our research found penetration of these services isn't likely to exceed 10% of all subscribers by 2010, video/TV services are poised to become a significant contributor to carrier data ARPU while emerging as a hotbed for community-oriented interaction and interesting advertising experiments," says Lewis Ward, research manager in IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program. "Broadband adoption of video/TV services is emerging as the cornerstone of growth in this market."

• Overall, blended cellular TV video/TV content and service ARPU is expected to settle in at about $6.50. This metric is comprised of three elements: a la carte content purchases, narrowband (i.e. "2.5G") subscriptions and broadband (i.e. "3G") subscriptions. Within this mix, broadband video/TV services should grow from less than half of all revenues last year to about 85% of the total in 2010, with a substantially above average ARPU. Survey data suggest that a mix of on-demand clips and live streaming content is the most appealing to consumers.

• However, uneven operator broadband network deployments, handset limitations, business model complexities, and indirect competition will continue to hamper adoption and growth of these services. Thus, while this market is receiving an amazing amount of interest from media companies and consumer brands, it will likely be several years before the opportunity to leverage mobile video/TV services as an interactive advertising channel will emerge in a profound manner.

“US Wireless Market Outlook 2006-2011 Datatable,” Strategy Analytics

• Momentum will stay with the US wireless market in 2006, with strong net additions, exploding minutes of use, an improving churn rate and healthy profitability. However, Strategy Analytics expects to see a slowdown from 2007 with a declining subscriber growth rate bringing into focus a number of weak metrics, particularly in the voice market.

• Voice ARPUs fell 7% in 2005 despite the 14% increase in average usage levels and the underlying declines in average revenue per minute will barely improve - these will fall from 6.5 cents per minute in 2005 to just 4.3 cents by 2011.

“India Mobile Market: The Next land Run for Mobile Vendors?” The Diffusion Group

• All inhabited areas (and hence the entire population) of India should be covered by mobile networks by the end of 2009, despite only 45-50% coverage today.

• The number of total mobile subscribers is expected to increase from just over 100 million today to over 348 million by year-end 2010.

• Despite what the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India terms a "quality of service crisis", fierce price wars among India mobile operators have caused near exponential growth in mobile subscribers since 2003.

“Worldwide Mobile Phone 2006-2010 Forecast and Analysis,” IDC

• "2005 marked a tremendous step in the worldwide mobile phone market, with strong demand from emerging markets and the initial rollouts of 3G network availability. After reaching a record 825.4 million units shipped during 2005, the underlying demand foundation of the mobile phone market remains sound.

• The market will continue to grow and expand through 2010, offering abundant opportunity for all players in the value chain." — Ramon T. Llamas, research analyst, Mobile Markets

“Wireless Home Network User Survey Results,” Strategy Analytics

• This datasheet contains user survey findings relevant to the accompanying report, Home Network Adoption: WiFi Emerges As Mass Market Phenomenon. It includes reported ownership of home networks split by type (WiFi, Ethernet, Coax, powerline, phoneline), access platform (DSL, cable), maturity of broadband subscription, age and income groups. Data is provided for the US and Europe.

“Mobile TV for Marketers: Monetizing the Smallest Screen,” eMarketer

• Last year, marketers, carriers and content providers scrambled to get their messages onto the third screen. As yet none of the major players has cracked the code as to which video services will pay off – either via direct sales or advertising revenues. Nevertheless, all agree that the small screen offers some big opportunities.

• Mobile television burst onto the radar screens of carriers, content providers and a few marketers in 2005. A host of forecasts, pilot tests, initial launches and general agitation in the convergence industry leave little doubt that something major is going to happen with mobile TV, and sooner rather than later.

• After reviewing the various global trials, carrier and content provider announcements and surveying the market, eMarketer forecasts that there will be 100 million worldwide users of paid or sponsored mobile broadcast video services by the end of 2009.

“Worldwide and Server 2006-2010 Forecast,” IDC

• This IDC study discusses the worldwide server market, which declined 0.7% to $15.5 billion during the fourth quarter of 2005 when compared with the same period a year ago. Although growth in the United States was greater than in some other regions during this time, it was not enough to offset declines in Western Europe and Japan.

• "We have reduced the spending growth slightly in the 2006 and 2007 time frame to reflect the potential impact of virtualization, but we still expect healthy long-term growth in server revenue as customers continue to invest in their underlying compute infrastructure." — Steve Josselyn, research director, Global Enterprise Server Solution

“IDC Forecast Anticipates Decline in Total Voice Revenue in 2008-2009 for the U.S. Consumer Wireless Industry,” IDC

• Although the U.S. wireless service provider industry rocketed ahead in 2005, adding approximately 21.8 million new subscribers, IDC finds the U.S. consumer wireless industry rapidly approaching key turning points in 2006. With subscriber growth slowing and continued voice average revenue per user (ARPU) erosion factors, total voice revenue is expected to decline in the 2008-2009 timeframe.

• The U.S. wireless service provider industry had another stellar year in 2005, crossing the 200 million subscriber and 70% market penetration thresholds, receiving positive market response to the first handset-based 3G applications, and with providers reporting they had crossed the 10% data ARPU level.

• Another key dynamic in 2005 was that mobile virtual network operators (MVNO) moved into the market entry phase; two key roles that MVNOs will play over the forecast period are to force the broader wireless service provider market to adopt a retail market model approach and to increase the overall level of service provider competition.

• "Total voice service revenue declines late in the forecast period will jolt an industry accustomed to 25 years of voice revenue growth and further emphasize the importance of data services to the future of the industry. With the wireless subscriber market approaching saturation, driving further adoption usage of data services will be critical to maintaining total ARPU and service growth in light of continuing voice ARPU erosion," says Scott Ellison, program director, Wireless and Mobile Communications at IDC.